04-11-2008 Sinal de compra segundo Teun Draaisma !!! 24-10-2008 The earliest this recession started was in December, which means the earliest it ends if this is a “normal historical recession” is June/09. Considering that the stock market tends to bottom 4 months before the recession ends, even if the market is in a bottoming process, we are unlikely to get any clarity that this bear market is over until we are into February, perhaps longer. If you ask us what a major capitulation point we could see that will really part the clouds, we think it is when the NBER finally makes the recession call – because when it does, on average, we are within a month of the recession being over. That has been a true blue barometer. 28/09/2008 With the plan, we will have four large, solvent, well-capitalized banks: JPMorgan Chase JPM , Bank of America BAC , USBancorp USB and Wells Fargo WFC We might also be able to add Goldman Sachs GS 19-09-2008 The SEC ban on short sales, issued early on Friday, ends on October 2 but can be extended beyond 10 days if deemed necessary. On Thursday, Britain's Financial Services Authority imposed a four-month ban on short selling financial stocks. 22-07-2008 - Nouriel Rubini : The economist sees a "severe recession" that will last 12-to-18 months, but does not foresee the U.S. sliding into a prolonged Japan-like economic malaise. Similarly, while further 20% declines for major averages isn't pretty, it won't be as bad as the bursting of the tech bubble or the Great Depression for stocks, which Roubini sees starting to recover later this year/early next year. 15-06-2008 Greenspan said market watchers would know the crisis was coming to an end when the gap between three-month London interbank offered rates, or Libor rates, and Overnight Index Swap rates narrowed to about 50 basis points. 08-05-2008 Mr. Roubini said further interest rate cuts will enable the United States to emerge from recession by mid-2009, by which time the benchmark U.S. federal funds rate could be 1% or lower. 30-04-2008 Q1 GDP : The official headline for U.S. Q1 GDP growth says a positive 0.6% growth but the details are ugly and confirm that we are in a recession. First of all, if you exclude the increase of inventory of unsold goods (that moved positive after a negative figure in Q4) the Final Sales of Domestic Product were a negative 0.2%. In other terms, inventories of unsold goods added an artificial 0.8% to Q1 growth boosting it from a negative 0.2% to a positive 0.6%. So actual aggregate demand (Final Sales of Domestic Product) – the actual measure of growth of true demand - fell in Q1. And this build-up of inventories in Q1 means that the fall in GDP in Q2 will be larger than otherwise as firms will have to reduce that large inventory of unsold goods via a further reduction in production and employment. 11-04-2008 GE earnings - 6% Those declines overshadowed a 17 percent rise in profit at the infrastructure unit, which has been boosted by emerging-market demand for heavy equipment like electricity-producing turbines. NBC Universal's profit rose 3 percent. 25-3-2008 Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2 trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of the losses. U.S. leveraged institutions, which include banks, brokers-dealers, hedge funds and government-sponsored enterprises, will suffer roughly $460 billion in credit losses after loan loss provisions, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note released late on Monday. 19/03/2008 Solução para crise financeira por Nouriel Roubini ver em Artigos interessantes na Area de Consulta 02/03/2008 (Reuters) - Oil prices won't fall below $60 to $70 a barrel as this is the minimum level at which alternative fuels are economically viable, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naim 25/02/2008 Jim Rogers, 65, has previously said he is betting on a long- term decline in the dollar and said in November investors should sell the currency. He said today he has been buying the Swiss franc, the yen and agricultural commodities, including cotton, sugar and coffee. 21/02/2008 This amounts to roughly $670 billion, which is not far from our own internal estimates. To put that number into perspective, it is equivalent to a full year’s worth of GDP growth! The banks so far have written down $150 billion http://www.usamercado.com/arquivos/Total Credit crunch.doc 30/01/2008 Russia's low exposure to the subprime crisis puts it in a strong relative position as U.S. and European markets struggle to work out the damage to banks and insurers. 17/12/2007 Yardeni the recession scenario will become increasingly less likely after mid-2008 S&P 500 1776 06/12/2007 – Previsao 2008 Charles Nenner Right now, he is calling for a year end rally, with more to go, roughly to mid-Dec. His price target on the Dow is around 14,300. - In terms of 2008, he predicts a tough February and March, and a very volatile year overall, with 3 to 4 roughly 15% corrections. He believes 2008 will be a very difficult year to make money in. - He believes we are right on the edge of a deflation scare. 4/12/2007 Noriel R - recession will depend on how aggressive the Fed is. I.e. the Fed will not at this point be able to prevent a recession – for the same reasons why it did not prevent one (in spite of very aggressive easing) in 2001 – but it would be able to put a floor on the depth and length of such a recession. Europa x USA: Euro e taxas de juros devem cair para evitar forte recessao The same holds for the ECB: the ECB has so far deluded itself that the liquidity and credit crunch was a temporary phenomenon and that, once that crunch was eased, it could continue on its policy rate hike campaign. Time to get real euro Libor spread are signaling near panic in Eurozone financial markets: the Eurozone economy risks a serious hard landing as the credit/liquidity crunch is as severe as in the US hurting corporate borrowing and capex spending, the euro is going through the roof and severely hurting export competitiveness, housing bubbles around Europe are deflating, economic activity and demand are slowing, and the US hard landing will hurt Europe’s exports even further. The ECB should avoid the mistake made in 2001-2002 when it eased too little too late with the cost that the European economic downturn was as bad as the US one and the growth recovery is 2002-2005 pathetically dismal. 4/12/2007 I am confident that the dollar will have a significant rally next year, especially against the euro and the pound,'' said Stephen Jen, the London-based head of currency research at Morgan Stanley, who expects the U.S. currency to strengthen to $1.35 by December 2008. ``The deficits are shrinking fast.'' Jim O'Neill, chief economist in London at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the most profitable securities company, said last week the narrowing trade deficit will help revive the dollar's allure. 8/11/07 Fed: We think that by the spring of early 2008, as these credit problems resolve and as, we hope, the housing market begins to find a bottom ... 31/10/2007 Nouriel Rubini: Consensus for GDP Q4 is for a growth of 1.8% ...1.0%